{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101308",
  "record_slug": "ethereum-above-3-500-by-jan-2027-ladder-at-19-2026-10-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ethereum below $3,500 by year-end stays the market consensus",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Ethereum above $3,500 by Jan 2027: ladder at 19%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-G2G3Y09R59",
  "target_event_slug": "kxethmaxy-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Ethereum price by January 1, 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-3500.00",
    "question_raw": "Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?",
    "current_price": 0.19,
    "volume_24h_usd": 153.94,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Prediction market ladder prices only 19% odds Ethereum reaches above $3,500 before January 1, 2027, with probability falling steeply to 9% at $4,000.",
    "CFTC regulatory exploration of blockchain infrastructure under the CLARITY Act is a longer-term catalyst; the market is not pricing near-term Ethereum upside from it.",
    "A companion Solana ladder puts only 26% odds on Solana above $150 before year-end, suggesting broad altcoin upside skepticism despite the regulatory news.",
    "Ethereum is trading near $2,500 per spot data in the newswire context, placing current price roughly 40% below the 19% threshold strike at $3,500."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Kurt Robson",
          "source_url": "https://www.ccn.com/news/crypto/cftc-unveils-post-clarity-act-crypto-plan/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T15:32:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The CFTC published a Federal Register notice exploring how existing exchange rules apply to digital assets on blockchains following the CLARITY Act, reviving price speculation including a viral Bitcoin $5 million call.",
      "publisher": "Kurt Robson",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.ccn.com/news/crypto/cftc-unveils-post-clarity-act-crypto-plan/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Prediction market ladder on Ethereum reaching $3,500 by January 2027 sits at 19%, with the market pricing the current $2,500 spot as the central scenario."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Kurt Robson: Bitcoin to $5M? CFTC’s Post-CLARITY Act ‘Plan B’ Revives Viral Price C",
      "url": "https://www.ccn.com/news/crypto/cftc-unveils-post-clarity-act-crypto-plan/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T15:32:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ethereum-above-3-500-by-jan-2027-ladder-at-19-2026-10-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ethereum-above-3-500-by-jan-2027-ladder-at-19-2026-10-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}