{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260712VS05",
  "record_slug": "european-country-agrees-to-give-ukraine-vol-25735",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-12T09:48:30+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "European security guarantee for Ukraine sits deep in tail risk",
  "telemetry": "6% · $26K 24h",
  "headline": "Europe Ukraine security pact by Dec 31: 6% on $26K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PJ9L04HS30",
  "target_event_slug": "european-country-agrees-to-give-ukraine-security-guarantee-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will a European country agree to give Ukraine a security guarantee in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xbed2a6374a4ba91a772f009cc811bb4d680f28990038da090a651af2e57e0d61",
    "question_raw": "European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.06,
    "volume_24h_usd": 25735.1875,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 45074.061531,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a European country formal security guarantee for Ukraine by year-end at just 6%.",
    "$26K in 24h is 57% of a $45K all-time pool, a thin but informationally dense market.",
    "Volume surge likely follows a NATO or bilateral summit signal that fell short of a binding commitment.",
    "Resolves December 31, 2026; the 6% price absorbs diplomatic momentum while discounting legal ratification speed."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 25735.1875
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will a European country agree to give Ukraine a securit",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/european-country-agrees-to-give-ukraine-security-guarantee-by-june-30",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-12T09:48:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/european-country-agrees-to-give-ukraine-vol-25735/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/european-country-agrees-to-give-ukraine-vol-25735.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}