{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261021DV00",
  "record_slug": "exponent-token-event-k28-p15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-21T13:25:45+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Exponent token launch splits sharply across venues",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 15% vs Kalshi 29%",
  "headline": "Exponent token before 2027: Kalshi 29% vs Polymarket 15%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-K7DR5FCFM0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtokenlaunch-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Will Exponent launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x411d2f1251d86d9a4f30186c660745c597d18a19737fd8f7b4ee1483ece9ffde",
    "question_raw": "Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.15,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 357823.21353400004,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOKENLAUNCH-27JAN01-EXPO",
      "question_raw": "Will Exponent launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "current_price": 0.29
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the launch at 29%, Polymarket at 15%, a 14pp gap on the same claim.",
    "Kalshi is the higher venue; Polymarket carries vastly deeper liquidity on the lower side.",
    "Thin volume on Kalshi leaves it more vulnerable to noise; Polymarket's deeper book likely reflects broader informed consensus.",
    "Resolves YES if Exponent publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-B8681B67DA); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 586.6659169999999,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 65.75
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Will Exponent launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/exponent-token-event-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-21T13:25:45+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/exponent-token-event-k28-p15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/exponent-token-event-k28-p15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}