{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070601",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-12-2026-07-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed cut above 25 basis points in 2026 wavers at long odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 12%",
  "headline": "Fed cut >25bp in 2026: Kalshi 12%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.117,
    "volume_24h_usd": 970.64,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only a 12% chance the Fed delivers any single cut larger than 25 basis points in 2026.",
    "Waller's hawkish pivot toward inflation as the primary risk is consistent with markets already pricing out aggressive easing.",
    "New York Fed President John Williams separately said energy-driven disinflation eases near-term inflation pressure, a mild offset to Waller's posture that the market appears to absorb without moving its distribution.",
    "The Kalshi rate-path ladder pins the year-end upper bound firmly in the 3.50-3.75 percent range, with only 11 percent probability above 4.00 percent, confirming the market sees cuts as likely but modest in pace."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "tradevae.com",
          "source_url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/waller-says-inflation-now-the-primary-risk-as-us-labor-market-stabilizes/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Governor Christopher Waller declared inflation is now the primary risk, shifting from prior labor-market concerns and signaling no urgency for aggressive easing.",
      "publisher": "tradevae.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z",
      "source_url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/waller-says-inflation-now-the-primary-risk-as-us-labor-market-stabilizes/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve announcement; at 12%, the market is aligned with Fed officials' cautious, data-dependent posture."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "tradevae.com: Waller Says Inflation Now the Primary Risk as U.S. Labor Market Stabil",
      "url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/waller-says-inflation-now-the-primary-risk-as-us-labor-market-stabilizes/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-12-2026-07-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-12-2026-07-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}