{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100803",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-08",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "A Fed cut above 25 basis points this year stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 3%",
  "headline": "Fed cut >25bps in 2026: Kalshi 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 19.67,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract on a Fed cut greater than 25 basis points in 2026 sits at just 3%, resolving via the Federal Reserve.",
    "Fed minutes pointed to continued tightening bias, and the Kalshi price is consistent, an outsized cut is almost entirely ruled out by the market.",
    "The Kalshi ladder for the federal funds upper bound prices the peak near 4.0-4.25%, structurally incompatible with any near-term large cut.",
    "Resolution requires the Fed to actually execute a single cut exceeding 25 basis points in 2026; even one standard 25bps cut would not trigger this contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "James Picerno",
          "source_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952772-fed-minutes-signal-more-tightening-amid-mixed-inflation-data",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-09T14:55:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed minutes signaled more tightening ahead amid mixed inflation data, with officials worried about cost pressures spreading from energy, AI investment, and other shocks.",
      "publisher": "James Picerno",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952772-fed-minutes-signal-more-tightening-amid-mixed-inflation-data"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices a jumbo 2026 Fed cut at just 3%, fully aligned with the hawkish minutes narrative and the broader rate ladder."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "James Picerno: Fed Minutes Signal More Tightening Amid Mixed Inflation Data | Seeking",
      "url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952772-fed-minutes-signal-more-tightening-amid-mixed-inflation-data",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-09T14:55:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-08/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-08.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}