{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110602",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-above-25-bps-this-year-kalshi-3-2026-11-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T15:18:36.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Market puts long odds against an outsized Fed cut",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 3%",
  "headline": "Fed cut above 25 bps this year: Kalshi 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.029,
    "volume_24h_usd": 11.2,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only a 3% chance the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points in 2026.",
    "New York Fed President John Williams's hawkish remarks on elevated inflation are fully consistent with the near-zero probability of an outsized cut.",
    "October nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, well above the 59,000 forecast, reinforcing the case against aggressive easing.",
    "Resolution via an official Federal Reserve rate decision announcement for any remaining 2026 meeting."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Max Rego",
          "source_url": "https://thehill.com/business/6203854-fed-williams-inflation-too-high/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said inflation remains too high and reiterated the 2% target amid multiple price shocks.",
      "publisher": "Max Rego",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T15:18:36.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thehill.com/business/6203854-fed-williams-inflation-too-high/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves on a Federal Reserve decision; at 3%, the market is firmly aligned with Williams's hawkish posture."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Max Rego: Fed’s Williams says inflation too high, targets 2 percent",
      "url": "https://thehill.com/business/6203854-fed-williams-inflation-too-high/",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T15:18:36.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25-bps-this-year-kalshi-3-2026-11-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25-bps-this-year-kalshi-3-2026-11-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}