{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091702",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-above-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-1-2026-09-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Odds on a large Fed rate cut this year stay near long-shot levels",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 1%",
  "headline": "Fed cut above 25bp in 2026: Kalshi 1%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-20",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.012,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1.64,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts only 1% odds on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points in 2026.",
    "News confirms a rate hike was delivered September 16; a large cut in the same calendar year is treated by prediction markets as a near-impossibility.",
    "The 1% price is consistent with the Fed's signaled intent to keep hiking, as reported across multiple outlets citing Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official communications; any pivot to a large cut would require a dramatic macro shock not currently priced into companion rate markets."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "france24.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260917-in-our-lane-fed-s-warsh-defies-trump-but-still-fighting-for-credibility",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T12:50:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a rate hike defying President Donald Trump, but faces questions about the central bank's credibility.",
      "publisher": "france24.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260917-in-our-lane-fed-s-warsh-defies-trump-but-still-fighting-for-credibility"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve official decision records; at 1% this is a deep tail event priced consistently with an active hiking cycle."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "france24.com: 'In our lane': Fed's Warsh defies Trump but still fighting for credibi",
      "url": "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260917-in-our-lane-fed-s-warsh-defies-trump-but-still-fighting-for-credibility",
      "published_at": "2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T12:50:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-1-2026-09-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-1-2026-09-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}