{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072205",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-above-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-7-2026-07-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Odds of jumbo Fed cut this year remain a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 7%",
  "headline": "Fed cut above 25bps in 2026: Kalshi 7%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.069,
    "volume_24h_usd": 74.88,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts only 7% probability on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.",
    "The oil shock narrative, Brent near 92 dollars, WTI past 84, supports the Fed hold consensus and is consistent with this near-zero jumbo-cut probability.",
    "The Kalshi rate ladder implies the upper bound most likely settling in the 3.25-3.50% range, meaning any cut would be modest, not aggressive.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate decisions; a single cut of 50 basis points or more at any 2026 meeting would resolve yes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "walletinvestor.com",
          "source_url": "https://walletinvestor.com/news/finance-news/fed-expected-to-hold-rates-through-2026-as-oil-shock-lifts-inflation-risk/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Oil prices surged more than 20% after US-Iran hostilities resumed, lifting inflation risk and prompting Reuters poll consensus for the Fed to hold rates through year-end.",
      "publisher": "walletinvestor.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://walletinvestor.com/news/finance-news/fed-expected-to-hold-rates-through-2026-as-oil-shock-lifts-inflation-risk/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 7% on a jumbo cut is fully aligned with the oil-shock-driven hold consensus described in the Reuters poll cited by the news."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "walletinvestor.com: Fed Expected to Hold Rates Through 2026 as Oil Shock Lifts Inflation R",
      "url": "https://walletinvestor.com/news/finance-news/fed-expected-to-hold-rates-through-2026-as-oil-shock-lifts-inflation-risk/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-7-2026-07-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-7-2026-07-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}