{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060304",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-before-2027-kalshi-19-2026-06-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T14:13:53.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed cut before 2027 wavers at low consensus",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 19%",
  "headline": "Fed cut before 2027: Kalshi 19%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-X2TT2M9D02",
  "target_event_slug": "kxratecut-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRATECUT-26DEC31",
    "question_raw": "Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.187,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2019.22,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts only 19% odds on any Fed rate cut before 2027, resolving via Federal Reserve announcement.",
    "Williams's 'no need to cut' language is consistent with the market's heavily skewed-against-cut pricing.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) prices only 10% on a cut larger than 25 basis points in a single move, underscoring the market's view that even a cut, if it came, would be small.",
    "With the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound pinned at 3.50-3.75% on Kalshi and Warsh inheriting above-target inflation, the cut window appears priced as a tail event through year-end."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "fxstreet.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-williams-policy-in-right-place-no-need-to-raise-or-lower-rates-202606031413",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T11:24:05+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "New York Fed President John Williams said policy is in the right place and there is no need to raise or lower rates, while acknowledging inflation is 'up quite a bit.'",
      "publisher": "fxstreet.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T14:13:53.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-williams-policy-in-right-place-no-need-to-raise-or-lower-rates-202606031413"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via official Federal Reserve rate decision; 'before 2027' means any FOMC meeting through December 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "fxstreet.com: Fed's Williams: Policy in right place, no need to raise or lower rates",
      "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-williams-policy-in-right-place-no-need-to-raise-or-lower-rates-202606031413",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T14:13:53.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T11:24:05+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-before-2027-kalshi-19-2026-06-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-before-2027-kalshi-19-2026-06-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}