{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060802",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-before-2027-kalshi-19-2026-06-08",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-08T02:41:03.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed cut before 2027 consensus wavers at 19 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 19%",
  "headline": "Fed cut before 2027: Kalshi 19%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-X2TT2M9D02",
  "target_event_slug": "kxratecut-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRATECUT-26DEC31",
    "question_raw": "Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.187,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2019.22,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only a 19% chance the Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark rate before 2027.",
    "May's 172K jobs print and Warsh's hawkish signals align with this low probability, not at odds with it.",
    "Goldman Sachs (Story 4) now expects no easing until 2027, consistent with the 81% market-implied probability of no cut.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official policy announcement; any cut of any size before January 1, 2027 would settle this YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Martin Thomas",
          "source_url": "https://www.prof-fx.com/p/us-jobs-surge-reinforces-hawkish-fed-bias-as-kevin-warsh-faces-first-policy-test/17204/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-09T10:57:53+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The strong May jobs report and Kevin Warsh's hawkish posture have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve has limited room to ease monetary policy near term.",
      "publisher": "Martin Thomas",
      "published_at": "2026-06-08T02:41:03.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.prof-fx.com/p/us-jobs-surge-reinforces-hawkish-fed-bias-as-kevin-warsh-faces-first-policy-test/17204/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 19% reflects the post-May jobs repricing; Goldman's 2027 easing call is now in sync with prediction market consensus."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Martin Thomas: US Jobs Surge Reinforces Hawkish Fed Bias as Kevin Warsh Faces First P",
      "url": "https://www.prof-fx.com/p/us-jobs-surge-reinforces-hawkish-fed-bias-as-kevin-warsh-faces-first-policy-test/17204/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-08T02:41:03.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-09T10:57:53+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-before-2027-kalshi-19-2026-06-08/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-before-2027-kalshi-19-2026-06-08.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}