{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026063004",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-before-2027-kalshi-22-2026-06-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-30T23:17:50.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed rate cut before 2027 consensus wavers at low conviction",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 22%",
  "headline": "Fed cut before 2027: Kalshi 22%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-X2TT2M9D02",
  "target_event_slug": "kxratecut-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRATECUT-26DEC31",
    "question_raw": "Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.222,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3683.11,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prediction market prices only 22% on the Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark rate before 2027.",
    "June jobs forecasts calling for solid hiring are consistent with the low cut probability, strong employment data reduces urgency for easing.",
    "A separate Kalshi contract puts just 7% on any cut exceeding 25 basis points in a single meeting, reinforcing the market's cautious-hold posture.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official policy decision; any cut of any size before January 1, 2027 would trigger resolution as YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "morningstar.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.morningstar.com/economy/june-job-forecasts-show-continued-robust-gains-hiring",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Economists forecast continued solid hiring for June, but remained divided on whether healthy jobs data would prompt the Federal Reserve to ease policy before year-end.",
      "publisher": "morningstar.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T23:17:50.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.morningstar.com/economy/june-job-forecasts-show-continued-robust-gains-hiring"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 22% reflects a market that is skeptical of near-term easing despite the split economist consensus previewed in the Morningstar jobs-forecast survey."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "morningstar.com: June Job Forecasts Show Continued Robust Gains In Hiring | Morningstar",
      "url": "https://www.morningstar.com/economy/june-job-forecasts-show-continued-robust-gains-hiring",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T23:17:50.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-before-2027-kalshi-22-2026-06-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-before-2027-kalshi-22-2026-06-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}