{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091403",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-greater-than-25-bps-in-2026-kalshi-4-2026-09-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Odds on a large Fed cut this year stay near zero",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 4%",
  "headline": "Fed cut greater than 25 bps in 2026: Kalshi 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.037,
    "volume_24h_usd": 9.04,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a Fed cut greater than 25 basis points in 2026 at just 4%, resolving via Federal Reserve official decision.",
    "With Warsh widely expected to hike Wednesday, the Kalshi contract is consistent with the news, a large cut this year is a near-complete long shot.",
    "Polymarket's 2026 rate hike contract (CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4) at 93% and this 4% cut contract point in the same direction: the market has fully priced the hike and ruled out a pivot.",
    "Resolution requires Federal Reserve to announce a single cut exceeding 25 bps at any 2026 meeting, a bar that looks very high given Wednesday's expected move."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Rob Curran",
          "source_url": "https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/feds-warsh-poised-pull-trigger-and-raise-rates-first-time-under-his-watch",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-15T13:05:57+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is poised to raise rates by 25 basis points even as President Trump continues to demand a cut, according to The Business Times.",
      "publisher": "Rob Curran",
      "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/feds-warsh-poised-pull-trigger-and-raise-rates-first-time-under-his-watch"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's cut contract at 4% is the inverse confirmation of the hike consensus, with Federal Reserve announcement as the named resolution source."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Rob Curran: Fed's Warsh poised to pull trigger and raise rates for the first time",
      "url": "https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/feds-warsh-poised-pull-trigger-and-raise-rates-first-time-under-his-watch",
      "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-15T13:05:57+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-greater-than-25-bps-in-2026-kalshi-4-2026-09-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-greater-than-25-bps-in-2026-kalshi-4-2026-09-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}