{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101203",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-greater-than-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "A jumbo Fed rate cut this year stays a very long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 3%",
  "headline": "Fed cut greater than 25bp in 2026: Kalshi 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.028,
    "volume_24h_usd": 120.2,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts only 3% odds on the Fed cutting by more than 25 basis points at any remaining 2026 meeting.",
    "The September hike to 3.75-4.00% and hawkish minutes language leave an outsized cut in 2026 almost entirely off the table per the Kalshi contract.",
    "The Kalshi ladder on the next meeting upper bound pricing 83% above 4.0% further reinforces that cuts, let alone jumbo ones, are not the base case.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official policy decisions for all remaining 2026 FOMC meetings; a single cut exceeding 25bp would trigger resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Marketing",
          "source_url": "https://trivesta.com.au/weekly-market-recap/central-bank-minutes-in-focus-as-equities-advance",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Central bank minutes confirmed the FOMC raised rates 25 basis points in September to 3.75-4.00% and signaled openness to further tightening, ruling out near-term aggressive easing.",
      "publisher": "Marketing",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://trivesta.com.au/weekly-market-recap/central-bank-minutes-in-focus-as-equities-advance"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices a greater-than-25bp Fed cut in 2026 at just 3%, fully aligned with the tightening posture confirmed in September's minutes."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Marketing: Central Bank Minutes in Focus as Equities Advance - Trivesta",
      "url": "https://trivesta.com.au/weekly-market-recap/central-bank-minutes-in-focus-as-equities-advance",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-greater-than-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-greater-than-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}