{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061002",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-over-25-bps-in-single-meeting-kalshi-10-2026-06-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T15:59:33.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed jumbo cut consensus fractures under hot CPI pressure",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 10%",
  "headline": "Fed cut over 25 bps in single meeting: Kalshi 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-02",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points in a single action this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.104,
    "volume_24h_usd": 26.64,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts only 10% on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points in a single meeting.",
    "May CPI at 4.2%, driven by a 23.5% annual energy surge, is consistent with the market pricing out any aggressive easing; the hot print reinforces the 90% probability against a jumbo cut.",
    "The 10% residual likely reflects a tail scenario where energy shocks reverse sharply and growth deteriorates faster than expected, forcing Fed hand.",
    "Resolution via the Federal Reserve's official rate decision; any intra-meeting emergency cut or split decision would settle the contract immediately outside the regular calendar."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Rich Duprey",
          "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/06/10/may-cpi-surges-to-4-2-but-the-fed-may-not-be-ready-to-raise-rates/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "May CPI hit 4.2% with energy prices up 23.5% annually, but analysts note the Fed typically looks past energy-driven spikes, leaving rate-hike probability low and large cuts even lower.",
      "publisher": "Rich Duprey",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T15:59:33.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/06/10/may-cpi-surges-to-4-2-but-the-fed-may-not-be-ready-to-raise-rates/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract prices only a 10% chance of a Fed cut exceeding 25 bps in one meeting, consistent with the current hot inflation print keeping the central bank sidelined on aggressive easing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Rich Duprey: May CPI Surges to 4.2%, but the Fed May Not Be Ready to Raise Rates -",
      "url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/06/10/may-cpi-surges-to-4-2-but-the-fed-may-not-be-ready-to-raise-rates/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T15:59:33.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25-bps-in-single-meeting-kalshi-10-2026-06-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25-bps-in-single-meeting-kalshi-10-2026-06-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}