{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101603",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-over-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed cut above 25 basis points in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 3%",
  "headline": "Fed cut over 25bp in 2026: Kalshi 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.028,
    "volume_24h_usd": 42.13,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts only 3% odds on the Federal Reserve delivering a rate cut greater than 25 basis points in 2026.",
    "News highlights mixed signals: cooler CPI and PPI but slow progress to 2% target and hot retail sales; Kalshi pricing is consistent with near-zero chance of aggressive easing.",
    "At 3%, the contract treats a jumbo cut as essentially off the table for the remainder of 2026, regardless of softer data prints.",
    "Story 3 notes hot data raised October hike odds; a separate Fed funds ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) places the upper bound most likely at 4.0-4.25%, consistent with no large cut."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bankoftexas.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.bankoftexas.com/insights/articles/by-the-numbers_081426",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-19T15:14:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Bank of Texas notes the Fed is receiving conflicting signals from cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI prints versus persistent above-target inflation and strong growth.",
      "publisher": "bankoftexas.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bankoftexas.com/insights/articles/by-the-numbers_081426"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi binary contract; resolves via Federal Reserve official announcement on rate decision."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bankoftexas.com: By the Numbers: Fed receiving conflicting inflation and job market sig",
      "url": "https://www.bankoftexas.com/insights/articles/by-the-numbers_081426",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-19T15:14:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}