{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062305",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-over-25bp-in-single-meeting-kalshi-7-2026-06-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-23T05:36:57.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Big Fed cut consensus fractures as PCE inflation peaks near 4 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 7%",
  "headline": "Fed cut over 25bp in single meeting: Kalshi 7%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points in a single action this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.07,
    "volume_24h_usd": 9.4,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only a 7% chance the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points in a single meeting.",
    "A 4.1% PCE forecast is consistent with the market's near-total rejection of aggressive easing; the news and the price align.",
    "Economists projecting May as the inflation peak suggest potential for eventual cuts, but the market sees no urgency for outsized action.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve policy announcement; a jumbo cut would require a dramatic and rapid inflation reversal not currently priced."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "morningstar.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.morningstar.com/economy/may-pce-expected-show-rising-inflation",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-25T10:38:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "May PCE inflation is forecast at 4.1% annually by FactSet, its highest level since April 2023, with economists expecting May to mark the year's inflation peak.",
      "publisher": "morningstar.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T05:36:57.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.morningstar.com/economy/may-pce-expected-show-rising-inflation"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 7% is firmly consistent with a rising-inflation environment and Warsh's stated price-stability mandate."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "morningstar.com: May PCE Expected to Show Rising Inflation | Morningstar",
      "url": "https://www.morningstar.com/economy/may-pce-expected-show-rising-inflation",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T05:36:57.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-25T10:38:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bp-in-single-meeting-kalshi-7-2026-06-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bp-in-single-meeting-kalshi-7-2026-06-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}