{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070402",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-over-25bp-in-single-move-kalshi-10-2026-07-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T04:02:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Outsized Fed cut consensus wavers despite weak payrolls",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 10%",
  "headline": "Fed cut over 25bp in single move: Kalshi 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points in a single action this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.096,
    "volume_24h_usd": 157.87,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only a 10% chance the Fed cuts by more than 25 basis points in any single meeting.",
    "Warsh's inflation-first posture, even after the jobs miss, is consistent with the market's low probability on an outsized cut.",
    "The Fed funds ladder separately implies the current upper bound holds near 3.50-3.75%, reinforcing a gradualist path.",
    "Resolves via the official Federal Reserve post-meeting rate decision; a 50bp-or-larger cut in any 2026 meeting would trigger a YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Shaun Connell",
          "source_url": "https://livegoldprices.com/june-payrolls-miss-by-half-but-warshs-fed-stays-locked-on-inflation/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "June payrolls missed badly at 57,000 with downward revisions, yet Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh maintained an inflation-first stance.",
      "publisher": "Shaun Connell",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T04:02:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://livegoldprices.com/june-payrolls-miss-by-half-but-warshs-fed-stays-locked-on-inflation/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 10% reflects the market absorbing weak payrolls without repricing for aggressive easing, consistent with the hawkish Fed communications."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Shaun Connell: June Jobs Miss: Fed's Warsh Holds Inflation-First Stance",
      "url": "https://livegoldprices.com/june-payrolls-miss-by-half-but-warshs-fed-stays-locked-on-inflation/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T04:02:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bp-in-single-move-kalshi-10-2026-07-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bp-in-single-move-kalshi-10-2026-07-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}