{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102205",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-2-2026-10-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Market stays long shot on a jumbo Fed cut this year",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 2%",
  "headline": "Fed cut over 25bps in 2026: Kalshi 2%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-23",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.025,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4.75,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prediction market puts only 2% probability on the Federal Reserve cutting by more than 25 basis points in 2026.",
    "Falling Treasury yields reflect risk-off demand tied to Middle East tensions, not a Fed-pivot bet, the contract's 2% price is consistent with that read.",
    "September CPI at 3.7% year-over-year and jobless claims at a three-month low give the Fed no near-term justification for aggressive easing.",
    "The Fed funds ladder on Polymarket clusters in the 4.0-4.25% zone, and a separate contract prices a Fed rate hike at near-zero, together they frame a prolonged hold scenario."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Hugh Leask, Sean Conlon",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/treasurys-bonds-ai-yields.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T13:24:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Treasury yields fell Thursday as investors weighed Middle East tensions alongside fresh labor data and an approaching Fed decision.",
      "publisher": "Hugh Leask, Sean Conlon",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/treasurys-bonds-ai-yields.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi resolves via the Federal Reserve's actual policy decision; 2% pricing reflects near-universal expectation of a hold or minor adjustment."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Hugh Leask, Sean Conlon: Treasury yields fall ahead of jobs data amid Mideast tensions",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/treasurys-bonds-ai-yields.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T13:24:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-2-2026-10-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-2-2026-10-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}