{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100503",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed rate cut above 25 basis points stays a near-certain long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 3%",
  "headline": "Fed cut over 25bps in 2026: Kalshi 3%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 46.88,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts only 3% odds on the Fed cutting rates by more than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.",
    "With Schmid warning inflation has 'a way to go' and the October hike debate still live, a jumbo cut this year is priced as nearly impossible.",
    "The Kalshi ladder on the post-October upper bound sits near 4.00%, coherent with a market that sees no large cuts coming.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate decisions through year-end 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Admirals Expert Verified",
          "source_url": "https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fomc-minutes-october-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T07:47:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting are due October 7, with markets watching for guidance on the pace and size of any future rate adjustments.",
      "publisher": "Admirals Expert Verified",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fomc-minutes-october-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 3%; pricing is consistent across the rate complex with no internal contradictions."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Admirals Expert Verified: FOMC Minutes October 2026: Release Time and Preview",
      "url": "https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fomc-minutes-october-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T07:47:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}