{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100802",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-08",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Rate cut above 25 basis points stays a long shot this year",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 3%",
  "headline": "Fed cut over 25bps in 2026: Kalshi 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 19.66,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 3% on the Federal Reserve cutting by more than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.",
    "Fed minutes flagged inflation risks from energy, AI investment, and other shocks, consistent with the near-zero probability of an outsized cut.",
    "The Kalshi ladder for the Fed funds upper bound (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) clusters at 4.0-4.25%, reinforcing that markets see the next move as a hike, not a cut.",
    "Resolves via official Federal Reserve policy announcement; any cut exceeding 25bps at a scheduled FOMC meeting would settle this YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "James Picerno",
          "source_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952772-fed-minutes-signal-more-tightening-amid-mixed-inflation-data",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-09T07:48:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed minutes released October 7 showed officials feared inflation pressures could spread, signaling more tightening ahead rather than easing.",
      "publisher": "James Picerno",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952772-fed-minutes-signal-more-tightening-amid-mixed-inflation-data"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 3% is firmly consistent with the hawkish minutes narrative; no outsized easing priced for 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "James Picerno: Fed Minutes Signal More Tightening Amid Mixed Inflation Data | Seeking",
      "url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4952772-fed-minutes-signal-more-tightening-amid-mixed-inflation-data",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-09T07:48:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-08/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-08.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}