{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082802",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-5-2026-08-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Odds of outsized Fed cut this year stay near zero",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 5%",
  "headline": "Fed cut over 25bps in 2026: Kalshi 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.05,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.25,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts just 5% odds on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points in 2026, resolved via Federal Reserve decisions.",
    "Warsh's hawkish framing at Jackson Hole, avoiding any easing signal, is fully consistent with this near-zero cut probability.",
    "The Kalshi contract pricing aligns with a market consensus that the next move is more likely a hike than a large cut.",
    "Cross-referencing the 68% Polymarket hike probability against this 5% large-cut probability reveals a strongly asymmetric tightening bias in prediction markets."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jeff Cox",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/kevin-warsh-jackson-hole-federal-reserve-inflation.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech to warn on inflation and avoid committing to any forward guidance or reaction function.",
      "publisher": "Jeff Cox",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/kevin-warsh-jackson-hole-federal-reserve-inflation.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 5% leaves almost no room for aggressive easing, in line with Warsh's deliberate refusal to signal accommodation."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jeff Cox: kevin-warsh-jackson-hole-federal-reserve-inflation",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/kevin-warsh-jackson-hole-federal-reserve-inflation.html",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-5-2026-08-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-5-2026-08-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}