{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060501",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-over-25bps-in-single-move-kalshi-10-2026-06-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-05T17:44:14.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed cut above 25 basis points priced near zero",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 10%",
  "headline": "Fed cut over 25bps in single move: Kalshi 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points in a single action this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.104,
    "volume_24h_usd": 26.64,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 10% probability that the Fed cuts by more than 25 basis points in any single meeting.",
    "Hot May jobs print of 172,000 is consistent with a market already skeptical of aggressive Fed easing.",
    "A 10% price on outsized cuts means the market sees the path as steady-hold or shallow-cut, not a pivot.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; any meeting where the cut exceeds 25bps triggers yes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jeff Cox",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/hot-jobs-report-puts-fed-cuts-further-out-of-reach-as-chair-warsh-faces-policy-tests.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-07T10:26:16+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "May payrolls surged to 172,000, far above the 105,000 forecast, removing near-term Fed rate cut expectations and complicating new Chair Kevin Warsh's policy path.",
      "publisher": "Jeff Cox",
      "published_at": "2026-06-05T17:44:14.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/hot-jobs-report-puts-fed-cuts-further-out-of-reach-as-chair-warsh-faces-policy-tests.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 10% aligns with post-jobs consensus that the Fed is on extended hold under Chair Kevin Warsh."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jeff Cox: Hot jobs report puts Fed cuts further out of reach as Chair Warsh face",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/hot-jobs-report-puts-fed-cuts-further-out-of-reach-as-chair-warsh-faces-policy-tests.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-05T17:44:14.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-07T10:26:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-single-move-kalshi-10-2026-06-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-in-single-move-kalshi-10-2026-06-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}