{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102203",
  "record_slug": "fed-cut-over-25bps-this-year-kalshi-3-2026-10-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed rate cut above 25 basis points stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 3%",
  "headline": "Fed cut over 25bps this year: Kalshi 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-23",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLARGECUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.029,
    "volume_24h_usd": 11.36,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 3% odds on any Fed rate cut exceeding 25 basis points in 2026.",
    "Reaccelerating CPI nowcast to 3.75% is consistent with Kalshi's near-zero probability on an oversized cut this year.",
    "Fed Governor Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee's warning about persistent price pressures (Story 6) reinforces the same directional read.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official policy announcement; any emergency easing move would need to exceed 25 basis points to trigger a yes resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "the-weekly-investor.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.the-weekly-investor.com/articles/feds-real-rate-buffer-is-30-bps-and-shrinking-1792667103826",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-23T07:48:07+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Cleveland Fed nowcast puts October CPI at 3.75% year-over-year, well above August's 3.4% print, shrinking the real rate buffer to roughly 30 basis points.",
      "publisher": "the-weekly-investor.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.the-weekly-investor.com/articles/feds-real-rate-buffer-is-30-bps-and-shrinking-1792667103826"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 3% shows the market fully dismisses dovish pivot scenarios for 2026, aligning with both the nowcast and Fed communications."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "the-weekly-investor.com: Fed's Real Rate Buffer Is 30 bps, and Shrinking",
      "url": "https://www.the-weekly-investor.com/articles/feds-real-rate-buffer-is-30-bps-and-shrinking-1792667103826",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-23T07:48:07+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-this-year-kalshi-3-2026-10-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25bps-this-year-kalshi-3-2026-10-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}