{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062205",
  "record_slug": "fed-cuts-before-2027-kalshi-28-2026-06-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-22T09:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed pre-2027 cut consensus wavers below one-in-three",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 28%",
  "headline": "Fed cuts before 2027: Kalshi 28%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-X2TT2M9D02",
  "target_event_slug": "kxratecut-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRATECUT-26DEC31",
    "question_raw": "Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.278,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1831.29,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a Federal Reserve benchmark rate cut before 2027 at 28%, meaning the market puts nearly three-to-one odds against any cut this year.",
    "Warsh's communications cutback removes a key signaling channel; markets are pricing the opacity as hawkish, consistent with BofA's no-cut-until-2028 call.",
    "The Fed funds ladder separately shows the upper bound most likely holding at 3.75%, not rising, so the 28% cut probability reflects a narrow window for easing rather than a hike cycle.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve; an actual policy rate reduction must be announced before January 1, 2027 for YES resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nwaonline.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2026/jun/22/feds-new-leader-signals-communications-cutback/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-22T13:32:28+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a deliberate pullback in forward guidance and communications transparency, raising uncertainty about the policy path.",
      "publisher": "nwaonline.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-22T09:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2026/jun/22/feds-new-leader-signals-communications-cutback/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 28% on a pre-2027 cut is the market's direct verdict on Warsh's hawkish posture: possible but not the base case."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nwaonline.com: Fed’s new leader signals communications cutback | Northwest Arkansas D",
      "url": "https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2026/jun/22/feds-new-leader-signals-communications-cutback/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-22T09:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-22T13:32:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cuts-before-2027-kalshi-28-2026-06-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cuts-before-2027-kalshi-28-2026-06-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}