{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062005",
  "record_slug": "fed-emergency-meeting-in-2026-kalshi-10-2026-06-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-20T15:36:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed emergency meeting odds hold low despite Warsh guidance vacuum",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 10%",
  "headline": "Fed emergency meeting in 2026: Kalshi 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5Z1MKFCSL8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfedmeet-27",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve hold an emergency meeting in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFEDMEET-27-JAN01",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.096,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-02T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices a 10% probability of a Federal Reserve emergency meeting in 2026, resolving via Federal Reserve announcement.",
    "Warsh's deliberate communication blackout raises the theoretical need for emergency action, but at 10% the market is not treating the guidance vacuum as a crisis trigger.",
    "An emergency meeting would typically signal either a financial accident or a sharp macro deterioration, neither is priced as a base case in current labor or rate markets.",
    "The Fed funds ladder showing 95% above 3.50% and near-zero above 4.25% implies markets see a stable rate path, which is structurally inconsistent with emergency-meeting scenarios."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "morningstar.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260620153/the-fed-is-forcing-wall-street-to-do-the-heavy-lifting-use-these-benchmarks-to-find-your-footing",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "With Warsh eliminating the dot plot and forward guidance, analysts warn that markets will face greater volatility and higher uncertainty without Fed communication anchors.",
      "publisher": "morningstar.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-20T15:36:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260620153/the-fed-is-forcing-wall-street-to-do-the-heavy-lifting-use-these-benchmarks-to-find-your-footing"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 10% on an emergency Fed meeting is a modest tail-risk premium consistent with reduced communication, not a base-case repricing of policy instability."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "morningstar.com: The Fed is forcing Wall Street to do the heavy lifting. Use these benc",
      "url": "https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260620153/the-fed-is-forcing-wall-street-to-do-the-heavy-lifting-use-these-benchmarks-to-find-your-footing",
      "published_at": "2026-06-20T15:36:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-emergency-meeting-in-2026-kalshi-10-2026-06-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-emergency-meeting-in-2026-kalshi-10-2026-06-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}