{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060905",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-above-3-50-at-next-meeting-kalshi-98-2026-06-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-09T10:27:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed above 3.50 percent hardens to near-certainty on blowout jobs",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds above 3.50% at next meeting: Kalshi 98%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26jun",
  "event_question": "Next FOMC meeting Fed funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUN-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.02,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1599.49,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-17T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the Fed funds upper bound remaining above 3.50% at the next FOMC meeting at 98%, essentially fully priced.",
    "The blowout jobs print is fully consistent with this near-certainty; any near-term rate cut has been priced out of this ladder entirely.",
    "The critical information is the sharp cliff: probability above 3.75% collapses to just 2%, meaning the market is holding rates steady rather than pricing a hike.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve; a surprise emergency cut or hike would be the only resolution scenarios that deviate from the 3.50-3.75% consensus."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "- By Mark NIQUETTE AND AUGUSTA SARAIVA",
          "source_url": "https://www.magzter.com/stories/newspaper/Los-Angeles-Times/HIRING-SURGE-IN-MAY-BOOSTS-BETS-ON-FED-RATE-HIKE",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "May job growth topped all forecasts, boosting bets on a Fed rate hike and pressuring newly installed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.",
      "publisher": "- By Mark NIQUETTE AND AUGUSTA SARAIVA",
      "published_at": "2026-06-09T10:27:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.magzter.com/stories/newspaper/Los-Angeles-Times/HIRING-SURGE-IN-MAY-BOOSTS-BETS-ON-FED-RATE-HIKE"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 98% above-3.50% read with only 2% above 3.75% signals strong conviction on a hold, not a hike, even as the jobs headline boosted rate-hike narrative coverage."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "- By Mark NIQUETTE AND AUGUSTA SARAIVA: Hiring surge in May boosts bets on Fed rate hike | Los Angeles Times -",
      "url": "https://www.magzter.com/stories/newspaper/Los-Angeles-Times/HIRING-SURGE-IN-MAY-BOOSTS-BETS-ON-FED-RATE-HIKE",
      "published_at": "2026-06-09T10:27:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-3-50-at-next-meeting-kalshi-98-2026-06-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-3-50-at-next-meeting-kalshi-98-2026-06-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}