{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070902",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-above-3-50-post-meeting-kalshi-91-2026-07-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-09T19:48:36.374Z",
  "semantic_title": "Rate hold consensus wavers above 3.75 percent floor",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds above 3.50% post-meeting: Kalshi 91%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26oct",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound (post-meeting, second ladder)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26OCT-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.2,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-04T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "This Kalshi ladder prices 91% above 3.50% but collapses to 20% above 3.75% and 23% above 4.00%, showing a bifurcated distribution.",
    "The task force launch signals institutional uncertainty about the policy framework, yet the market assigns only 20-23% odds to any level above 3.75%.",
    "The 3-percentage-point spread between the 4.00% and 3.75% strikes (23% vs. 20%) is unusually flat, suggesting some residual ambiguity about the tail.",
    "Compare to the CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5 ladder: both anchor the mode at 3.50-3.75%, but this ladder shows a fatter right tail, implying slightly more uncertainty about a hike scenario."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Neil Pierson, HousingWire Automation",
          "source_url": "https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fed-task-forces-monetary-policy-communications-balance-sheet-inflation-2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Federal Reserve announced five new task forces led by outside economists to reassess how it conducts policy on data, jobs, and inflation.",
      "publisher": "Neil Pierson, HousingWire Automation",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T19:48:36.374Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fed-task-forces-monetary-policy-communications-balance-sheet-inflation-2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder; the 91%-to-20% collapse between the 3.50% and 3.75% strikes is the key read on hike probability."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Neil Pierson, HousingWire Automation: Fed launches task forces on data, jobs and inflation - Housing Wire",
      "url": "https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fed-task-forces-monetary-policy-communications-balance-sheet-inflation-2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T19:48:36.374Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-3-50-post-meeting-kalshi-91-2026-07-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-3-50-post-meeting-kalshi-91-2026-07-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}