{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071006",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-above-3-75-post-decision-kalshi-21-2026-07-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-10T10:55:15.594Z",
  "semantic_title": "Rate above 3.75 percent nears full pricing as anchor below that level",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds above 3.75% post-decision: Kalshi 21%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26jul",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound post-decision",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUL-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.21,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2978.55,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-05T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder shows 99% above 3.50% but only 21% above 3.75%, anchoring the consensus rate view firmly in the 3.50-3.75% range.",
    "The Fed report's 'stepped-up inflation' language is hawkish, but the market is not moving the upper bound probability above 3.75% into base-case territory.",
    "The 56% Kalshi reading on CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42 for the Fed raising rates at all in the 2026-2028 series is consistent with a market that prices hikes as possible but not certain.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official decision; 99% certainty at 3.50% reflects a floor well-established before this report's release."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "federalreserve.gov",
          "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20260710_mprfullreport.pdf",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Federal Reserve's July 2026 Monetary Policy Report to Congress cited stepped-up inflation from tariffs, the Iran war, and AI buildout.",
      "publisher": "federalreserve.gov",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T10:55:15.594Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20260710_mprfullreport.pdf"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's ladder is consistent with markets absorbing hawkish Fed language without repricing a breakout above 3.75%, keeping the consensus pinned at the 3.50-3.75% band."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "federalreserve.gov: Monetary Policy Report, July 2026",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20260710_mprfullreport.pdf",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T10:55:15.594Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-3-75-post-decision-kalshi-21-2026-07-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-3-75-post-decision-kalshi-21-2026-07-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}