{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080102",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-above-3-75-post-july-kalshi-59-2026-08-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Rate cut odds stay low as Trump pressure on Fed continues",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds above 3.75% post-July: Kalshi 59%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound post-July 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 492.51,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 59% that the fed funds upper bound stays above 3.75% following the July meeting, with only 3% above 4.0%.",
    "Trump's push for rate cuts as economic rocket fuel has not moved the Fed, and Kalshi pricing is consistent with an extended hold rather than any imminent cut.",
    "The ladder shows 98% above 3.50%, meaning the market effectively rules out a cut to or below 3.50% at the next decision point.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 puts only 6% on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year, reinforcing that deep cut scenarios remain firmly off the table."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-interest-rates-midterms-iran-9db7b892114e7863064323396f633c9d",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "President Donald Trump has sought aggressive rate cuts as economic stimulus but the Fed has held rates steady for five consecutive meetings.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-interest-rates-midterms-iran-9db7b892114e7863064323396f633c9d"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Federal Reserve; the 3.75% strike at 59% is the pivotal level separating hold-flat from a possible future cut scenario."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Trump has been losing his battle to cut interest rates | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-interest-rates-midterms-iran-9db7b892114e7863064323396f633c9d",
      "published_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-3-75-post-july-kalshi-59-2026-08-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-3-75-post-july-kalshi-59-2026-08-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}