{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110401",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-above-4-0-kalshi-ladder-79-2026-11-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-04T13:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds above 4 percent stays heavily favored",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds above 4.0%: Kalshi ladder 79%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound (next meeting)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 196.3,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts 79% on the Fed funds upper bound clearing 4.0%, implying a market-consensus target in the 4.0-4.25% range.",
    "News calls December hike near-certain at 80% futures odds; Kalshi distribution is consistent, with 99% pricing at or above 3.75% already.",
    "Sharp cliff above 4.25%, Kalshi at only 3%, signals the market sees one more hike as the base case, not a prolonged cycle.",
    "Resolution via the Federal Reserve's official rate announcement at the next FOMC meeting; any hot October payroll print arriving Friday could shift the 4.25% tail rapidly."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "marketwatch.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/think-the-fed-will-be-done-after-two-more-rate-hikes-how-fridays-jobs-report-may-trigger-a-major-market-repricing-6aca874c",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T15:56:48+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Markets price a near-certain December Fed hike with futures showing 80% odds, and a hot October jobs report could force additional tightening into 2027.",
      "publisher": "marketwatch.com",
      "published_at": "2026-11-04T13:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/think-the-fed-will-be-done-after-two-more-rate-hikes-how-fridays-jobs-report-may-trigger-a-major-market-repricing-6aca874c"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder carries live strike probabilities from 2.75% to 5.25%; the distribution clusters tightly at 4.0-4.25%, with thin tail above."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "marketwatch.com: Think the Fed will be done after two more rate hikes? How Friday’s job",
      "url": "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/think-the-fed-will-be-done-after-two-more-rate-hikes-how-fridays-jobs-report-may-trigger-a-major-market-repricing-6aca874c",
      "published_at": "2026-11-04T13:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T15:56:48+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-4-0-kalshi-ladder-79-2026-11-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-4-0-kalshi-ladder-79-2026-11-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}