{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100803",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-above-4-25-after-next-decision-kalshi-60-2026-10-08",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Odds climb toward another Fed hike as FOMC minutes land",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds above 4.25% after next decision: Kalshi 60%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-27jan",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound following next Fed decision",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27JAN-T4.25",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.6,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-03T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 60% odds the federal funds upper bound exceeds 4.25% after the next decision, with 86% above 4.0%.",
    "Fed minutes citing AI-driven inflation pressure and near-unanimous support for another hike are broadly consistent with this above-4.0% skew.",
    "The Kalshi contract on cuts greater than 25 basis points this year (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) remains at 3%, no easing scenario is priced alongside the hike expectation.",
    "The companion near-term Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) puts only 18% on above 4.0%, confirming the market sees the terminal hike as a later-meeting event, not imminent."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cryptotimes.io",
          "source_url": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/10/08/bitcoin-ethereum-slide-as-fed-minutes-point-to-year-end-rate-hike/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T07:48:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed minutes pointed to a likely year-end rate hike driven by persistent inflation and AI investment pressures, triggering a crypto sell-off.",
      "publisher": "cryptotimes.io",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/10/08/bitcoin-ethereum-slide-as-fed-minutes-point-to-year-end-rate-hike/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder; the 4.25% strike at 60% is the sharpest signal that markets are taking the minutes' year-end hike language seriously."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cryptotimes.io: Bitcoin, Ethereum Slide as Fed Minutes Point to Year-End Rate Hike",
      "url": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/10/08/bitcoin-ethereum-slide-as-fed-minutes-point-to-year-end-rate-hike/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T07:48:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-4-25-after-next-decision-kalshi-60-2026-10-08/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-above-4-25-after-next-decision-kalshi-60-2026-10-08.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}