{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082801",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-3-50-3-75-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound seen near 3.75% after Jackson Hole",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.47,
    "volume_24h_usd": 24761.96,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the federal funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% above 3.50%, but only 47% above 3.75%, with trading volume up over 1,100x day over day.",
    "Warsh's price-first messaging at Jackson Hole is consistent with the ladder's sharp break above 3.75%, where probability collapses to 2%.",
    "The volume surge signals Warsh's speech is drawing intense fresh attention to the near-term rate path.",
    "The Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decisions; any September hike would shift the upper bound and reprice the full ladder."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "newsweek.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/fed-chair-focuses-on-prices-after-us-economy-sheds-more-jobs-than-thought-12380513",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized price stability as the Fed's top priority at Jackson Hole, signaling potential rate hikes amid persistent inflation.",
      "publisher": "newsweek.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/fed-chair-focuses-on-prices-after-us-economy-sheds-more-jobs-than-thought-12380513"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on the federal funds upper bound saw trading volume rise over 1,100x day over day, the dominant rate-path signal post-Jackson Hole."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "newsweek.com: Fed chair focuses on prices after US economy sheds more jobs than thou",
      "url": "https://www.newsweek.com/fed-chair-focuses-on-prices-after-us-economy-sheds-more-jobs-than-thought-12380513",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-3-50-3-75-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-3-50-3-75-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}