{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062602",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-after-next-meeting-kalshi-3-75-4-0-2026-06-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-26T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound anchors at 3.75 to 4 percent post-hike talk",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound after next meeting: Kalshi 3.75-4.0%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound after next FOMC meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.08,
    "volume_24h_usd": 37.75,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-16T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 56% chance above 3.75%, only 8% above 4.0%.",
    "Sticky 4.1% PCE aligns with the market pricing a July pause but leaving the door open for a September hike.",
    "Companion Kalshi ladder for a later meeting (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) shows upper bound implied near 3.50-3.75%, suggesting the market sees rate pressure as temporary, not a sustained hiking cycle.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official post-meeting rate announcement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Anupam Nagar",
          "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stock-market-sticky-inflation-keeps-september-fed-rate-hike-on-table-despite-july-pause-expectations/articleshow/132006583.cms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Sticky PCE inflation at a 3-year high keeps a potential September Fed rate hike in market discussion despite a near-certain July pause.",
      "publisher": "Anupam Nagar",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stock-market-sticky-inflation-keeps-september-fed-rate-hike-on-table-despite-july-pause-expectations/articleshow/132006583.cms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's ladder distribution shows consensus clustered just below 4.0%, with the PCE print consistent with but not accelerating the hike narrative."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Anupam Nagar: US Stock Market: Sticky inflation keeps September Fed rate hike on tab",
      "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stock-market-sticky-inflation-keeps-september-fed-rate-hike-on-table-despite-july-pause-expectations/articleshow/132006583.cms",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-after-next-meeting-kalshi-3-75-4-0-2026-06-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-after-next-meeting-kalshi-3-75-4-0-2026-06-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}