{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101202",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-after-next-meeting-kalshi-4-0-4-25-2026-10-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound stays priced near 4.0 to 4.25 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound after next meeting: Kalshi 4.0-4.25%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound after next meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.19,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 81% above 4.0% but only 19% above 4.25%, implying one more hike is consensus, two is a tail.",
    "Bank of America's two-hike call for October and December sits at the outer edge of what the Kalshi distribution reflects: 6% above 4.5% and 2% above 4.75%.",
    "The September payroll miss of 29,000 against a 90,000 estimate, reported separately, is the main counterweight to the BofA hawkish view.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract on the Fed making a cut greater than 25 basis points sits at 2%, consistent with the hike-bias framing in the ladder distribution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Vikram G",
          "source_url": "https://www.newkerala.com/news/a/strong-us-growth-sticky-inflation-may-prompt-two-278.htm",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bank of America expects two more Fed rate hikes in 2026, in October and December, citing strong US growth.",
      "publisher": "Vikram G",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.newkerala.com/news/a/strong-us-growth-sticky-inflation-may-prompt-two-278.htm"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi ladder on the Fed funds upper bound shows the market is pricing one hike as the base case, treating the BofA two-hike forecast as a meaningful but low-probability outcome."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Vikram G: BofA Sees Two More Fed Rate Hikes in 2026 on Strong US Growth",
      "url": "https://www.newkerala.com/news/a/strong-us-growth-sticky-inflation-may-prompt-two-278.htm",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-after-next-meeting-kalshi-4-0-4-25-2026-10-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-after-next-meeting-kalshi-4-0-4-25-2026-10-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}