{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071104",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-11T09:37:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Near-term Fed funds upper bound wavers on weak jobs data",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound at 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26oct",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound (near-term meeting)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26OCT-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.46,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2.76,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-04T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound at 3.50-3.75%: 91% above 3.50% but only 46% above 3.75%, showing a split between hold and one hike.",
    "A weak June jobs miss is in tension with the hawkish inflation framing; the 46% probability above 3.75% reflects that uncertainty directly.",
    "This ladder's 91% above 3.50% is slightly softer than the CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5 ladder's 98%, suggesting marginal extra doubt from the jobs data.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official post-meeting rate announcement; downward revisions to prior months could shift the distribution further."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AOL",
          "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/latest-jobs-report-missed-expectations-093700000.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-12T09:47:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "June jobs report missed expectations and prior months were revised down, complicating the Fed's inflation-fighting posture under Chair Kevin Warsh.",
      "publisher": "AOL",
      "published_at": "2026-07-11T09:37:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/latest-jobs-report-missed-expectations-093700000.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder; the spread between the two near-term Fed funds ladders (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5 and CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) captures incremental labor-market uncertainty."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AOL: Latest Jobs Report Missed Expectations - What That Means for Investors",
      "url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/latest-jobs-report-missed-expectations-093700000.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-11T09:37:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-12T09:47:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}