{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081401",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound seen holding at 3.50-3.75%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound at 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound, next meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.25,
    "volume_24h_usd": 76.61,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, with 98% above 3.50% but only 25% above 3.75%.",
    "Retail sales dropped 0.6% in July and consumer confidence fell, consistent with a market that prices near-zero chance of a hike.",
    "The sharp cliff from 98% to 25% between 3.50% and 3.75% signals strong consensus the upper bound stays at 3.75% or below.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract on an emergency Fed meeting in 2026 sits at just 5%, ruling out an out-of-cycle move as the catalyst."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "americanbanker.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/markets-eye-fed-hold-after-retail-sales-consumer-confidence-fall",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Weak retail sales and falling consumer confidence are pushing markets to bet the Fed holds rates steady at its next meeting.",
      "publisher": "americanbanker.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/markets-eye-fed-hold-after-retail-sales-consumer-confidence-fall"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via the Federal Reserve's post-meeting announcement; the 3.50-3.75% implied range reflects the dominant hold scenario."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "americanbanker.com: Markets eye Fed hold after retail sales, consumer confidence fall | Am",
      "url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/markets-eye-fed-hold-after-retail-sales-consumer-confidence-fall",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}