{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080402",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-75-4-0-ladder-implied-2026-08-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T16:29:46.733Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound stays near 3.75 percent on rate hike bets",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound at 3.75-4.0%: ladder-implied",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.01,
    "volume_24h_usd": 34.81,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The ladder prices the federal funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.00% range: 98% above 3.50%, 52% above 3.75%, but only 1% above 4.00%.",
    "A four-year high ISM reading and elevated input prices align with the pricing of a hike to 3.75-4.00%, but the market assigns near-zero probability to a hike beyond 4.00%.",
    "Trading volume on this ladder is up 575x day over day, a strong signal of fresh attention drawn by the ISM print and the Fed rate-hike narrative.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4) prices a 2026 rate hike at 62%, consistent with the ladder implying the most likely terminal level is 3.75-4.00%, not higher."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Rich Duprey",
          "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/04/this-indicator-hasnt-been-this-high-in-4-years-it-means-the-fed-could-raise-rates-in-2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-05T10:30:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 55.6, a four-year high, with elevated input prices, prompting analysis that the Fed could raise rates in 2026.",
      "publisher": "Rich Duprey",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T16:29:46.733Z",
      "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/04/this-indicator-hasnt-been-this-high-in-4-years-it-means-the-fed-could-raise-rates-in-2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder volume surge of 575x day over day is the standout signal; no single binary price is available for this event, read the distribution."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Rich Duprey: This Indicator Hasn't Been This High in 4 Years. It Means the Fed Coul",
      "url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/04/this-indicator-hasnt-been-this-high-in-4-years-it-means-the-fed-could-raise-rates-in-2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T16:29:46.733Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-05T10:30:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-75-4-0-ladder-implied-2026-08-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-75-4-0-ladder-implied-2026-08-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}