{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080403",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-implied-3-75-4-0-ladder-2026-08-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound seen near 3.75%-4.0%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound implied 3.75%-4.0%: ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound after next Fed decision",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.02,
    "volume_24h_usd": 49.2,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Prediction market ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound near 3.75%-4.0%, with 52% above 3.75% but only 2% above 4.0%.",
    "Manufacturing revival and construction momentum described in the news suggest the economy is absorbing current rates, consistent with the ladder's pricing of modest further easing rather than aggressive cuts.",
    "Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid's call for tighter policy stands in tension with the ladder implying the upper bound sits well below 4.0%.",
    "A Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) puts only 5% odds on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year, reinforcing the ladder's read of a cautious, incremental Fed path."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Courtenay Brown",
          "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/08/04/manufacturing-construction-labor-rates",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Rate-sensitive sectors including manufacturing and construction are gaining momentum as the economy adjusts to the Fed's prior tightening campaign.",
      "publisher": "Courtenay Brown",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/08/04/manufacturing-construction-labor-rates"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder pricing from prediction market strikes; Kalshi contract on outsized cuts resolves via Federal Reserve announcement."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Courtenay Brown: More manufacturers are increasing employment, ISM survey finds",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/08/04/manufacturing-construction-labor-rates",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-implied-3-75-4-0-ladder-2026-08-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-implied-3-75-4-0-ladder-2026-08-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}