{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092202",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-kalshi-ladder-holds-4-0-4-25-range-2026-09-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Markets back further hikes but cap expectations near 4.25%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound: Kalshi ladder holds 4.0-4.25% range",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-23",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound (post-September)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.42,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2423.8,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder sees 86% odds the federal funds upper bound clears 4.0%, but only 42% above 4.25%, pinning the implied range at 4.0-4.25%.",
    "Barkin's 'Why Hike' speech reinforces the hawkish Fed communication wave; pricing is consistent with another hike but not a sustained multi-step campaign.",
    "Volume on the ladder rose 517x day over day, as noted in the Musalem wire, confirming aggregate hawkish Fed commentary is drawing concentrated market activity.",
    "The Kalshi distribution assigns only 10% to 4.5% and above, meaning the market is fading the most aggressive hike scenarios despite uniform Fed hawkishness."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "pubt.io",
          "source_url": "https://www.pubt.io/view/B2182954E31289984E4C4AE83A98215F1E02FAFD",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-23T13:17:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin published a speech titled 'Why Hike,' defending the Fed's dual mandate rationale for continued tightening.",
      "publisher": "pubt.io",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pubt.io/view/B2182954E31289984E4C4AE83A98215F1E02FAFD"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Same Kalshi ladder as Story 0; volume surge reflects cumulative hawkish Fed signal from multiple officials across the week."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "pubt.io: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (via Public) / Why Hike",
      "url": "https://www.pubt.io/view/B2182954E31289984E4C4AE83A98215F1E02FAFD",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-23T13:17:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-kalshi-ladder-holds-4-0-4-25-range-2026-09-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-kalshi-ladder-holds-4-0-4-25-range-2026-09-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}