{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100204",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-ladder-implies-3-75-4-0-2026-10-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds rate seen staying in 3.75 to 4.0 percent range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound: ladder implies 3.75-4.0%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-03",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26oct",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26OCT-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.18,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1478.38,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-04T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder prices 99% above 3.75% but only 18% above 4.0%, placing the market-implied upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range.",
    "Jefferson's no-rush language is consistent with the ladder: the market sees 4.0% as a ceiling with only 18% odds of breaching it.",
    "The 29,000-job September print reinforces the pause case; the ladder's sharp drop above 4.0% reflects that data flow.",
    "A separate Kalshi contract on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year prices at just 4%, confirming the market sees a narrow hold corridor, not easing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Thao Ta",
          "source_url": "https://ph.investing.com/news/economy-news/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-no-rush-to-raise-rates-again-2611399",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T12:59:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the central bank is in no rush to raise rates again, suggesting an October hike is unlikely.",
      "publisher": "Thao Ta",
      "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://ph.investing.com/news/economy-news/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-no-rush-to-raise-rates-again-2611399"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi ladder is the only live Fed-path instrument with pricing in this cluster; all other Fed rate contracts lack quoted prices."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Thao Ta: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: No rush to raise rates again By Investing.co",
      "url": "https://ph.investing.com/news/economy-news/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-no-rush-to-raise-rates-again-2611399",
      "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T12:59:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-ladder-implies-3-75-4-0-2026-10-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-ladder-implies-3-75-4-0-2026-10-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}