{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081403",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-longer-run-kalshi-3-75-4-0-2026-08-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Longer-run Fed funds upper bound prices in near 3.75-4.0%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound longer-run: Kalshi 3.75-4.0%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound, longer-run meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.21,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1.26,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies a longer-run Fed funds upper bound near 3.75-4.0%, with 81% above 3.50% but only 51% above 3.75% and 21% above 4.0%.",
    "July CPI at 3.4% keeps inflation comfortably above the 2% target, which is consistent with a market reluctant to price aggressive cuts ahead.",
    "Comparing this ladder to the near-term meeting ladder (98% above 3.50%, 25% above 3.75%) shows the term structure is slightly higher, implying cuts come slowly if at all.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract on a Fed cut greater than 25 basis points in 2026 is priced at just 6%, reinforcing the shallow-easing consensus."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Federal Newswire Reports",
          "source_url": "https://thefederalnewswire.com/july-consumer-prices-rise-3-4-as-workers-lose-purchasing-power/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year, above prior months, keeping inflation above target even as the Fed weighs a pause.",
      "publisher": "Federal Newswire Reports",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thefederalnewswire.com/july-consumer-prices-rise-3-4-as-workers-lose-purchasing-power/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate announcement; the 3.75-4.0% implied range reflects persistent inflation as the binding constraint."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Federal Newswire Reports: July Consumer Prices Rise 3.4% as Workers Lose Purchasing Power - thef",
      "url": "https://thefederalnewswire.com/july-consumer-prices-rise-3-4-as-workers-lose-purchasing-power/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-longer-run-kalshi-3-75-4-0-2026-08-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-longer-run-kalshi-3-75-4-0-2026-08-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}