{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071605",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-longer-term-kalshi-3-50-3-75-2026-07-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-16T12:43:40.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Longer-horizon rate path nears full pricing at 3.5 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound longer-term: Kalshi 3.50-3.75%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26jul",
  "event_question": "Longer-term Fed funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUL-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.04,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1636.02,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-05T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi's longer-horizon ladder shows 98% above 3.50% but only 4% above 3.75%, tightly pinning the expected upper bound at 3.50-3.75%.",
    "Soft headline retail sales driven by energy price drag did not shift this distribution; the market treats underlying consumer spending as supportive of a gradual, limited easing path.",
    "The near-certainty above 3.50% combined with the cliff at 3.75% reflects consensus that the Fed will cut but stop well above prior cycle lows.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision at the relevant FOMC meeting date specified in the contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AOL",
          "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-124340000.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-17T09:53:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "June US retail sales rose only slightly as lower gasoline prices weighed on receipts, though underlying consumer momentum remained, prompting economists to upgrade second-quarter GDP estimates.",
      "publisher": "AOL",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T12:43:40.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-124340000.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract; the 98%/4% split across the 3.50/3.75 strikes is the dominant signal in this distribution."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AOL: Lower gasoline prices restrain US retail sales, underlying momentum re",
      "url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/us-retail-sales-rise-marginally-124340000.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T12:43:40.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-17T09:53:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-longer-term-kalshi-3-50-3-75-2026-07-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-longer-term-kalshi-3-50-3-75-2026-07-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}