{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101203",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-post-meeting-kalshi-4-0-4-25-2026-10-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound seen near 4 percent after next meeting",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound post-meeting: Kalshi 4.0-4.25%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound after next FOMC meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.15,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1.65,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound in the 4.00-4.25% range: 83% above 4.00%, but only 15% above 4.25%.",
    "FOMC minutes signaled a hike lean, yet the market clusters near 4.00-4.25% rather than pricing a move well above 4.25%, suggesting the market is not fully buying the hawkish posture.",
    "A softer September jobs report, just 29,000 payrolls added versus 90,000 expected, is pulling against the hawkish minutes, keeping the implied endpoint near current levels.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) pins an earlier meeting outcome below 4.00% with 99% confidence, consistent with a sequential hike path rather than a jump."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "chase-dream.cn",
          "source_url": "https://chase-dream.cn/en/digests/fed_macro-20261012-am/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T17:17:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "FOMC minutes reaffirmed a rate hike bias while strong foreign demand at a 10-year Treasury auction pushed yields down 10 basis points ahead of CPI data.",
      "publisher": "chase-dream.cn",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://chase-dream.cn/en/digests/fed_macro-20261012-am/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on the Fed funds upper bound; the 83%/15% split at 4.00%/4.25% shows the market treating a move past 4.25% as a tail risk despite hawkish Fed minutes."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "chase-dream.cn: Fed & Macro Overnight Brief October 12, 2026 | Fed Minutes Re-Affirm a",
      "url": "https://chase-dream.cn/en/digests/fed_macro-20261012-am/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T17:17:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-post-meeting-kalshi-4-0-4-25-2026-10-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-post-meeting-kalshi-4-0-4-25-2026-10-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}