{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101407",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-post-sep-kalshi-implied-4-0-4-25-2026-10-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound seen near 4.0 to 4.25 percent after September",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound post-Sep: Kalshi-implied 4.0-4.25%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound after September 2026 meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.33,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1129.38,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder implies a September 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 93% above 4.0% but only 33% above 4.25%, with trading volume up 9,607x day-over-day.",
    "A 29,000 September payroll print, far below typical expectations, is a dovish data shock that markets may be absorbing via the sharp drop in probability above 4.25%.",
    "The extreme volume surge (9,607x day-over-day) signals this contract is drawing intense fresh attention following the weak jobs report, even if the implied level has not visibly shifted in the data provided.",
    "The Fed's concurrent 25bp hike (see Story 2) and Williams' 2027 pause signal frame the 4.0-4.25% zone as a likely terminal range, consistent with this ladder distribution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cnnbc.com",
          "source_url": "https://cnnbc.com/us-economy-adds-just-29-000-jobs-in-september",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The US economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, a sharp hiring slowdown that adds uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's rate path ahead of upcoming meetings.",
      "publisher": "cnnbc.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cnnbc.com/us-economy-adds-just-29-000-jobs-in-september"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder shows massive volume spike alongside the weak jobs print, the 4.0-4.25% implied range is the market's current best estimate of where the cycle peaks."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cnnbc.com: US Economy Adds Just 29,000 Jobs in September - CNNBC",
      "url": "https://cnnbc.com/us-economy-adds-just-29-000-jobs-in-september",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-post-sep-kalshi-implied-4-0-4-25-2026-10-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-post-sep-kalshi-implied-4-0-4-25-2026-10-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}