{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072104",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-25-3-50-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-21",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-21T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound seen settling near 3.25 to 3.5 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound seen 3.25-3.50%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-V37TZKN222",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-27mar",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound (current cycle)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-27MAR-T3.50",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.35,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1.05,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2027-03-24T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi's ladder prices the federal funds upper bound most likely in the 3.25-3.50% range: 89% above 3.25%, but only 35% above 3.50%, with volume up 1,764% day over day.",
    "Goldman Sachs flags a 'new Fed era' of uncertainty; the ladder's sharp break at 3.50% shows markets pricing a high bar for further cuts.",
    "The separate Kalshi binary at 7% for a cut greater than 25 basis points this year reinforces that incremental easing, not bold action, is the dominant expectation.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate announcement; the upper bound of the target range, not the effective rate, is the settlement metric."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "goldmansachs.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/us-midyear-outlook-geopolitical-shocks-the-new-fed-era-and-growth",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Goldman Sachs midyear outlook highlights deep uncertainty around the new Fed chair's first policy moves amid easing inflation and escalating Middle East tensions.",
      "publisher": "goldmansachs.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/us-midyear-outlook-geopolitical-shocks-the-new-fed-era-and-growth"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The 1,764% volume surge on the Kalshi rate ladder signals sharply elevated trading activity around the new Fed chair's policy path."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "goldmansachs.com: US Midyear Outlook: Geopolitical Shocks, the New Fed Era, and Growth |",
      "url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/us-midyear-outlook-geopolitical-shocks-the-new-fed-era-and-growth",
      "published_at": "2026-07-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-25-3-50-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-21/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-25-3-50-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-21.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}