{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071305",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-13T02:06:29.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound seen holding in the 3.50-3.75 percent band",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound seen 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26oct",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26OCT-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.46,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-04T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder places the federal funds rate upper bound most likely in the 3.50-3.75% range: 91% above 3.50%, but only 46% above 3.75%.",
    "Despite hawkish inflation language in the July Fed Monetary Policy Report and Warsh testimony expectations, the market does not price a breakout above 3.75% as the base case.",
    "Companion ladder CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91 is broadly consistent: 92% above 3.50%, 46% above 3.75%, suggesting cross-contract coherence on the 3.50-3.75% pin.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; the sharp drop from 91% to 46% between the 3.50% and 3.75% strikes marks the market's line in the sand."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Estefano Gomez",
          "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-chair-warshs-testimony-this-week-may-signal-rate-hike-direction/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony this week is expected to signal the direction of rate hikes after a weak June jobs report and elevated inflation.",
      "publisher": "Estefano Gomez",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T02:06:29.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-chair-warshs-testimony-this-week-may-signal-rate-hike-direction/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's two independent Fed funds ladders are tightly aligned, both pricing the upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range and fading the case for a move above 3.75%."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Estefano Gomez: Fed Chair Warsh's testimony this week may signal rate hike direction",
      "url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-chair-warshs-testimony-this-week-may-signal-rate-hike-direction/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T02:06:29.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}