{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060101",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-78-2026-06-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-01T16:15:00.000Z",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound seen 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi 78%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound after next meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.34,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-16T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 94% above 3.25%, 78% above 3.50%, only 34% above 3.75%.",
    "CME FedWatch hike odds signal hawkish drift, but Kalshi pricing stays below 4.00%, consistent with hold rather than hike near-term.",
    "Companion ladder CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50 prices 96% above 3.50% but collapses to 2% above 3.75%, confirming both markets see 3.50% as the ceiling floor.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; any emergency inter-meeting move would settle at actual upper bound."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Warren Cohen",
          "source_url": "https://thefinancialwire.com/markets-priced-the-first-fed-rate-cut-no-earlier-than-september-and-28-of-cme-fedwatch-traders-now-bet-on-a-december-hike-the-first-non-zero-hike-odds-since-2023/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "CME FedWatch shows 28% of traders pricing a December Fed rate hike, the first non-zero hike odds since 2023, as markets push first cut to September.",
      "publisher": "Warren Cohen",
      "published_at": "2026-06-01T16:15:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thefinancialwire.com/markets-priced-the-first-fed-rate-cut-no-earlier-than-september-and-28-of-cme-fedwatch-traders-now-bet-on-a-december-hike-the-first-non-zero-hike-odds-since-2023/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Two Kalshi ladders converge on a 3.50% ceiling with near-zero probability above 3.75%, sharply at odds with the 28% December hike odds cited by CME FedWatch."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Warren Cohen: Markets priced the first Fed rate cut no earlier than September, and",
      "url": "https://thefinancialwire.com/markets-priced-the-first-fed-rate-cut-no-earlier-than-september-and-28-of-cme-fedwatch-traders-now-bet-on-a-december-hike-the-first-non-zero-hike-odds-since-2023/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-01T16:15:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-78-2026-06-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-78-2026-06-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}