{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081702",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Near-term Fed funds rate stays below 3.75 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound seen 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Near-term Fed funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.29,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1718.02,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the near-term Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% above 3.50% but only 29% above 3.75%.",
    "Fading hike bets reported in the news are consistent with this distribution, the sharp drop from 98% to 29% at the 3.75% strike signals the market is treating a move above 3.75% as unlikely.",
    "A companion ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) for a later meeting implies ~3.75-4.00%, with 51% above 3.75%, showing a modest term-structure tilt toward a later hike surviving.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official meeting outcome; upper-bound definition follows FOMC post-meeting statement language."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Merin Rebecca Thomas",
          "source_url": "https://www.ibtimes.com/fed-rate-hike-bets-are-fading-fast-cooler-inflation-could-leave-warsh-easier-choice-3806427",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-19T08:31:28+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Rate hike bets are fading fast as cooler inflation may give Fed Chair Kevin Warsh political cover to hold rates steady.",
      "publisher": "Merin Rebecca Thomas",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.ibtimes.com/fed-rate-hike-bets-are-fading-fast-cooler-inflation-could-leave-warsh-easier-choice-3806427"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder shows a hard probability cliff at 3.75%, aligning with widespread Wall Street skepticism about a September move."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Merin Rebecca Thomas: Fed Rate Hike Bets Are Fading Fast. Cooler Inflation Could Leave Warsh",
      "url": "https://www.ibtimes.com/fed-rate-hike-bets-are-fading-fast-cooler-inflation-could-leave-warsh-easier-choice-3806427",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-19T08:31:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}