{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070703",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-post-jobs-kalshi-78-20-2026-07-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-07T20:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Rate path consensus fractures as jobs shock hits pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound seen 3.50-3.75% post-jobs: Kalshi 78%/20%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26oct",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound (mid-2026 meeting)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26OCT-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.2,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-04T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 78% above 3.50% but only 20% above 3.75%, implying the market's modal rate path sits in the 3.50-3.75% range.",
    "A 57,000-job print is consistent with rate-cut pressure, yet the market is not pricing aggressive easing; the 78% above 3.50% shows no collapse in the rate floor.",
    "The weak labor market competes with persistent tariff-driven inflation concerns from the Fed minutes, creating the divided distribution seen in the Kalshi ladder.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate announcement at the relevant 2026 FOMC meeting; labor data is a key input but Fed reaction function remains uncertain given divided minutes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Maryann Pugh",
          "source_url": "https://www.mychesco.com/a/news/national/us-job-growth-misses-forecasts-as-hiring-momentum-slows/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-09T10:56:21+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The June jobs report showed only 57,000 nonfarm payrolls added, far below consensus, with downward revisions cutting 74,000 jobs from prior months.",
      "publisher": "Maryann Pugh",
      "published_at": "2026-07-07T20:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.mychesco.com/a/news/national/us-job-growth-misses-forecasts-as-hiring-momentum-slows/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract; the bifurcated distribution reflects the tension between soft labor data and elevated inflation concerns flagged in Fed minutes."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Maryann Pugh: US Job Growth Misses Forecasts as Hiring Momentum Slows - MyChesCo",
      "url": "https://www.mychesco.com/a/news/national/us-job-growth-misses-forecasts-as-hiring-momentum-slows/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-07T20:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-09T10:56:21+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-post-jobs-kalshi-78-20-2026-07-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-post-jobs-kalshi-78-20-2026-07-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}