{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091101",
  "record_slug": "fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds above 3.75% prices in as rate hike nears",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Fed funds upper bound seen 3.75-4.0%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound, next FOMC meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.02,
    "volume_24h_usd": 98.4,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 81% above 3.75%, but only 2% above 4.0%.",
    "August CPI data released Sept. 11 matched forecasts on headline but core beat at 0.3% month-over-month; the Kalshi distribution is fully consistent with a 25bp hike, not a larger move.",
    "Volume on this ladder surged 61x day-over-day, signaling a sharp burst of fresh positioning around the FOMC meeting this week.",
    "The Polymarket contract on Bank of England rate hikes in 2026 sits at 81%, suggesting global central bank tightening pressure is broadly repricing in tandem."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nytimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/business/economy/inflation-cpi-august.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13T13:04:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Elevated August CPI data, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month, is keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its upcoming meeting.",
      "publisher": "nytimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/business/economy/inflation-cpi-august.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Federal Reserve announcement; the tight 3.75-4.0% clustering leaves virtually no probability on a hold or a 50bp move."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nytimes.com: Elevated Inflation Keeps Pressure on Fed to Raise Rates - The New York",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/business/economy/inflation-cpi-august.html",
      "published_at": "2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13T13:04:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}